The Small Grains Disease Forecasting System Could Save Producers Money Back »

This article was written collaboratively by Emmanuel Byamukama, Shaukat Ali and Dennis Todey (former South Dakota State Climatologist & SDSU Extension Climate Specialist).


The South Dakota State University Small Grains Plant Pathology program has partnered with the Small Grains Plant Pathology program at North Dakota State University to deploy a small grains disease forecasting system for South Dakota. The system uses weather variables including rainfall, temperature, and relative humidity to predict the likelihood of disease development. This new tool has the potential to save growers money by helping them avoid unnecessary fungicide applications, or knowing when to apply a rescue fungicide treatment.

In order for plant diseases to develop, they require three factors: the host (wheat), the pathogen, and a conducive environment. The host and most pathogens are always present; the limiting factor then becomes the environment. Most leaf spot diseases, especially residue-borne diseases like tan spot, and Stagonospora/Septoria blotch will develop under wet and humid weather conditions. Presence of dew on leaves for extended periods indicates an increased risk for diseases to develop.

The overall objective of this forecasting system is to help the grower protect the top two leaves, which contribute the most to grain yield and to avoid unnecessary fungicide application if not needed. The small grains disease forecaster requires producers to follow three steps in order to determine the need to apply a fungicide.

The first step is to establish the presence of disease in the lower leaves at the late jointing growth stage. Scout for leaf spots on the second leaf below the flag leaf (F-2 leaf on the main tiller) of at least 40 leaves at random stops. If half of the leaves have fungal leaf spots, proceed to the next step. Otherwise, scout again every 3 days.

The second step is once there is enough incidence of fungal diseases, consult the model table, select the nearest weather station, the growth stage, and count the number of “Yes” in the table. If the table has 6-8 consecutive “Yes” infection periods, proceed to step 3. Otherwise repeat step one after 3 days.

The third step is to check for weather forecasts. If rainy, humid weather is in the forecast in the next 3-5 days, consider applying a fungicide at the earliest convenience. Fungicides need at least two hours before any rain to avoid washout.

Above: Figure 1. A screenshot of the Small Grains Disease Forecasting System.

For Fusarium head blight or scab prediction, the forecasting system indicates whether scab development risk is high, medium, or low to unlikely. Producers need to consider the risk of scab within 3 days prior to flowering and 6 days after flowering and consider applying a triazole fungicide if the risk is moderate to high and the cultivar grown is susceptible.

If used correctly this system has potential to save growers money in one of two ways: either from unnecessary fungicide applications in case of low chances of significant disease development; or a timely rescue fungicide treatment that will protect yield which would have otherwise been lost to fungal diseases.

The weather information comes from the SDSU Climate and Weather Stations across the state, and they are automatically linked to the models. Both the weather variables and the forecasting website are provided by the SDSU Climate and Weather Center.

blog comments powered by Disqus

Sign Up For Email!